Every pharmaceutical stock investor can “raise pigs†or “raise cattleâ€. The core is that you have to know whether the target of your investment is pig or cow. For those who raise pigs, the key is to keep abreast of the latest developments in international medicine. Don't negate each new technology, new business model, new model, but seriously study the things that are inherently reasonable. It is impossible to check the winds of the sky. In addition to technical tracking, the domestic policy needs to be tracked. The pharmaceutical industry in China is deeply affected by the policy. If the new trend in technology can be supported and guided by domestic policies, It is best to form resonance on both sides. For those who raise cattle, the key is to track drug sales data and company-level changes. Regardless of whether you are raising pigs or raising cows, the biggest risk is that research is not at home and tracking is not in place.
Raising pigs or raising cattle is scarce
After the New Year, gene sequencing , stem cell therapy, and telemedicine in the medical sector were once again madly speculated. There are two reasons: On the one hand, the market has risen nearly 40% in the madness that began in the fourth quarter of last year, but the pharmaceutical sector is seriously behind. In the fourth quarter, it only rose by 3% in the district, ranking the second lowest in all industry indexes, leaving room for the launch of the pharmaceutical sector this year, which can be attributed to the market capital game factor.
On the other hand, it can be attributed to the methodological problem of pharmaceutical stock investment. It can be used as a metaphor for raising pigs and raising cattle. The so-called raising cattle is the high growth of investment in pharmaceutical stocks. The performance of this bullish stock is very solid. This is a real cycle, and every pharmaceutical stock investor should try his best to dig.
For example, from 2008 to 2012, Zhongheng Group's flagship product, Xueshuantong Injection, benefited from the 2009 version of the medical insurance and basic medicine policy. The Chinese pharmaceutical market has entered a period of high growth. From the end of 2007 to 2012, the sales scale has increased by about 6 times. In the same period, Zhongheng Group's share price has more than 20 times. So if you can buy Zhongheng Group in 2012 and get it in 2012, the return on investment is quite ideal. This is the value investment of pharmaceutical stocks. The key to this is to keep up with the sales status of pharmaceutical companies and keep up with sales data. It can be called the cattle raising method.
Another investment method can be called the pig raising method, and the core is to invest in the large market space that can be expected in the future. There are also many cases in this regard. For example, Juno Therapeutics (JUNO), the most popular pharmaceutical stock in the United States in the past two years, was listed on the Nasdaq at the end of 2014. The market value once reached a maximum of $6 billion, and it is still There is no operating income, and it is still in the stage of burning money. The reason why the market gives it so high valuation is that the new tumor therapy being carried out by the company has the amazing effect of completely eliminating cancer cells, compared with traditional chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The new technology is revolutionary. At present, the anti-cancer drug market in the United States exceeds 100 billion US dollars. Therefore, it is not unreasonable for the market to give Juno a market value of several billion dollars.
All in all, whether it is "raising pigs" or "raising cattle", there is an identical core factor behind it, namely scarcity. The high growth of performance or the huge space of the market is a scarcity. Only when it is scarce can it sell high prices, which is in line with economic principles. The relatively underestimation of the A-share medical sector at the end of last year left room for performance this year. The concepts of gene sequencing and stem cell therapy that have emerged last year took the lead in rebounding after further market consensus, and became the rising champion of the pharmaceutical sector.
Pig on the vent of emerging medical concept
All new concepts and new themes of the medical sector can be regarded as pigs. Gene sequencing, stem cell or telemedicine, mobile medicine , etc. all contain opportunities, and each area is worthy of attention.
Gene sequencing will be the main investment clue for the future pharmaceutical industry, because this is the basis of future medical behavior, you can think of it as a complete data packet, and the data is hidden in each person's DNA sequence. Therefore, we can fully imagine that the future scenario is that everyone will master their own genetic data as much as their own bank information, and then carry out targeted medical activities based on their own data, and achieve traditional Chinese medicine at the molecular level. The essence of differentiation - syndrome differentiation, this is the data foundation of personalized medicine.
Internet medical care is also relatively optimistic, but it should be noted that the Internet is only a means, and the core is still in medical care. At present, the main body of medical services provided by China is still a public hospital. The application of Internet technology can be said to provide new technical means for the new business to grow. Although many business models are still very young, I believe that there will be a new pattern in time.
For such subject matter stocks, the so-called concept hype, in fact, Soros has a famous saying: the history of the world economy is a series based on illusions and lies. To gain wealth, the practice is to recognize the illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public. The same is true for A-shares. In particular, the pharmaceutical sector has high research thresholds. Various new technologies and new concepts emerge in an endless stream, making it difficult for general investors to judge. The only way is to rely on professional judgment to see if this concept has the feasibility of landing. In fact, many professionals in the medical industry can see at a glance whether it is really valuable, but the public does not know it.
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