20 scientific questions about the future of mankind
September 09, 2016 Source: Zhishe Academic Circle
Window._bd_share_config={ "common":{ "bdSnsKey":{ },"bdText":"","bdMini":"2","bdMiniList":false,"bdPic":"","bdStyle":" 0","bdSize":"16"},"share":{ }};with(document)0[(getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||body).appendChild(createElement('script')) .src='http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/api/js/share.js?v=89860593.js?cdnversion='+~(-new Date()/36e5)];1. Can humans continue to survive when the life of the Earth is over?
I think the idea of ​​massive immigration from the earth is a very dangerous illusion. In the solar system, no place is more suitable for humans than even the peaks of the Everest or the South Pole. We must acknowledge that this problem exists in this world. However, I speculate that in the next century, there will be a Mars exploration life funded by private groups, and then it may expand elsewhere in the solar system. Of course, we should wish these pioneer pioneers good luck, knowing that they rely on various mechanical technologies and biotechnology to adapt to the alien environment. After a few hundred years, they will evolve into new species: the post-human era is about to open. Traveling beyond the solar system is a post-human career, whether or not they need it.
—Martin Rees, British cosmologist and astrophysicist
2. When and where can we find extraterrestrial life?
If there are a lot of microbes on Mars, I estimate that in 20 years, we will find life similar to our human form. If there is a big difference between extraterrestrial life and species on Earth, it will be more difficult to find. Of course, it is also possible that the surviving microbes on Mars are scarce and the location of survival is difficult for our mechanical detectors to arrive. Jupiter’s satellite Europa and Saturn’s satellite Titan (Titan) are also worthy of attention. As a world of water, Europa may evolve into more complex forms of life. Titan is probably the most interesting place in the solar system that may have life. It is rich in organic molecules, the environment is very cold and there is no liquid water. If there is life, it must be very different from the species on Earth.
—Carol E. Cleland, professor professor and co-investigator in the Center for Astrobiology at the University of Colorado Boulder
3. Can we understand the essence of consciousness?
Many philosophers, mystics, etc. believe that we cannot finally understand the essence of consciousness or subjective thinking. But there is no theory to support such a defeatist argument. We also have many reasons to look forward to that day. In the near future, science will become a domesticated, quantitative, predictive of consciousness and its position in the universe. cognitive ability.
—Christof Koch, president and CSO at the Allen Institute for Brain Science; member of the Scientific American Board of Advisers
4. Is there a day when the world has enough medical services?
In the past 25 years, the global community has made great strides in medical equity. However, these achievements have not covered the most remote groups in the world. Into the rainforest, people there are isolated, no traffic, no network, the least available medical services, the lowest level of care, and the highest mortality rate in the world. According to WHO estimates, about 1 billion people have never seen medical personnel for a lifetime because of the long distance. Recruiting health care professionals directly from local communities can fill this gap. They can even fight infectious diseases like Ebola and ensure that basic care is in place when medical institutions have to close. My organization, the Last Mile Health Libyan government, has deployed more than 300 health workers in 300 communities in nine administrative districts. But we can't do this alone. If the global community attaches importance to universal human health care, then investment must be made to ensure that medical personnel can reach those remote areas.
—Raj Panjabi, co-founder and chief executive at Last Mile Health and instructor at Harvard Medical School
5. Can brain science change the criminal law?
Basically, the brain is a machine that reflects the law of causality. Its function is to change from one state to another according to the preconditions. The connection between criminal law and this is completely non-existent. First, all mammals and birds have self-controlled circuits that can be changed through intensive learning (reward for making good choices), especially in a social setting. Criminal law deals with public safety and welfare. Even if we can identify those special circuits, such as serial child rapists, limit their freedom because they tend to commit crimes again. Whether we can say, "He has such a brain is not his fault, let him go home." This is undoubtedly a private law enforcement act. When such a rude trial replaces the criminal law system that has been rooted in the pursuit of fairness for many years, things will get very bad.
—Patricia Churchland, professor of philosophy and neuroscience at the University of California, San Diego
6. What is the hope for humanity to survive in the next 500 years?
I think the chances of us surviving are still very good. Even major crises, such as nuclear wars or ecological disasters after climate change, will not completely remove us. One of the current threats is that machines will transcend humanity and decide to leave us. In the face of this problem, at least we can unplug their power.
—Carlton Caves, Distinguished Professor in physics and astronomy at the University of New Mexico
7. Can we prevent a nuclear holocaust?
After the 9/11 attacks, a major strategy of the United States was to reduce the threat of nuclear terrorism by strengthening the security of rich uranium-rich areas and eliminating terrorists as much as possible. A nuclear terrorist attack can kill 100,000 lives. Thirty years have passed since the end of the Cold War. However, there is still a huge danger of nuclear catastrophe in the US-Russian nuclear confrontation. This involves thousands of nuclear explosions and the annihilation of countless lives.
Like the Pearl Harbor incident, the United States has now shown that under the circumstance, all its nuclear forces may be swept away by the Russian pre-emptive blitzkrieg. Of course, we do not want to encounter such an attack, but both sides maintain the ability to launch intercontinental and submarine missiles, each with about 1,000 warheads in an early warning state. Since the missile's flight time is only 15 to 30 minutes, all decisions related to the lives of hundreds of millions of people must be made within a few minutes. This has brought about a great possibility of occasional nuclear wars and even hackers causing missile launches.
The United States does not need to make such a deterrent posture because it has 800 warheads on its submarines that cannot be locked. In the event of a nuclear war, both the United States and Russia hope to play their role before their fragile land-based missile system is destroyed. Although the Cold War has passed, this doomsday machine is still with us, at the touch of a button.
—Frank von Hippel, emeritus professor at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University and co-founder of Princeton's Program on Science and Global Security
8. Will human sexual activity decline?
Less likely. But the way in which offspring are bred through sexual behavior may become less common. In the next 20-40 years, we will be able to obtain eggs and sperm from stem cells, which is likely to come from the skin cells of both parents. This will allow us to genetically diagnose the embryo before implantation, or for parents who wish to genetically edit the embryo.
—Henry Greely, director of the Center for Law and the Biosciences at Stanford University
9. Will one day, we can rely on engineering to replace all human tissue?
In 1995, Joseph Vacanti and I wrote about the artificial pancreas technology, as well as the development of plastic artificial organs and electronic devices, and even blinded the blind. These are no longer unfamiliar to people, not to become real products, or to enter clinical trials. In the coming centuries, it is likely that any human tissue can be replaced in this way. Organizing or creating a brain that is so complex and not fully understood will require a lot of research. However, related research will soon help treat brain diseases such as Parkinson's or Alzheimer's.
—Robert Langer, David H. Koch Institute Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
10. Can we escape the “sixth extinction�
If we act quickly, this can be delayed and stopped. The biggest cause of species extinction is the loss of habitat. That's why I want to emphasize a complete global protected area, including half of the land and half of the ocean. Under this initiative, we also need to discover and identify nearly 10 million surviving species. At the moment, we only found and named 2 million. In short, the extension of environmental science, including the biological world, should be a major scientific goal for the rest of the century.
—Edward O. Wilson, University Research Professor emeritus at Harvard University
11. Can we feed everyone without destroying the earth?
Yes. People should do this: reduce crop waste, household waste, and meat consumption; combine appropriate seed technologies and management practices; help consumers understand the challenges faced by farmers in both developed and developing countries; and raise public funds for agricultural research and development; Focus on sustainable agriculture from a socio-economic and environmental perspective.
—Pamela Ronald, professor in the Genome Center and the department of plant pathology at the University of California, Davis
12. Can we open up colonies in outer space?
This depends on the definition of "colonization." If you send a robot to log in, then we have done it. If the microbes on the earth are transported to survive and even develop, then unfortunately, we have not done so. Perhaps the Phoenix Mars probe is the closest to the Curiosity Rover. They are all equipped with heat sources, but they are far from colonies like the Vikings.
If this means that human beings live elsewhere for a longer period of time, but do not breed, then it is likely to be realized in the next 50 years. (Although limited breeding activities are feasible), the goal is to create a self-sufficient environment in which humans can survive indefinitely with little help from the earth, so the “colonial†under this definition is still very distant. We are still far from knowing how to build a closed ecosystem that is well protected against foreign organisms or non-biological events (such as Biosphere II). I think the challenges of this ecosystem problem are much more difficult than the space colonists believe. There are many technical problems that need to be solved. Another problem is air handling. We have not tried underwater colonization on Earth. To conquer an environment without even the atmosphere, I am afraid it will be much more difficult.
—Catharine A. Conley, NASA planetary protection officer
13. Can we find a twin brother of the earth?
I bet it. Compared to decades ago, we have discovered a lot more planets that orbit around other stars. And we have found that water, the vital component of life on Earth, is also common in space. I think nature has a lot of planets, including terrestrial planets. All we need to do is to find them.
—Aki Roberge, research astrophysicist focusing on exoplanets at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
14. Can we treat Alzheimer's disease?
I am not sure if there is a cure, but I very much hope that a successful disease modification therapy for Alzheimer's disease will occur in the next decade. We have begun preventive experiments and even biological interventions before people go to clinical symptoms. In fact, we do not have to completely cure Alzheimer's disease, we only need to delay the performance of Alzheimer's disease for 5 to 10 years. It is estimated that if the stage of severe illness is delayed for five years, it will reduce the burden of medical care by nearly 50%. More importantly, older people will be able to leave safely in the external environment, not in the ward.
—Reisa Sperling, professor of neurology at Harvard Medical School and director of the Center for Alzheimer Research and Treatment
15. Can wearable technology devices detect our emotions?
Emotions involve biochemical and electrical signals that reach our organs, such as stress that affects our physical and mental health. Wearable technology allows us to quantify the patterns of these signals over a longer period of time. In the next decade, wearable devices will be able to provide personalized weather forecasts for our health: based on your recent stress, sleep, social emotional activities, etc., your health and happiness probability will increase by 80% next week. However, unlike weather forecasts, smart wearable devices can also identify ways we can alleviate the “storm†event: keeping sleep more than 9 hours a day, maintaining the current low to medium level, then the chance of worrying in the next 4 days can be reduced by 60%. . In the next 20 years, wearable devices and the analysis they bring will significantly reduce our mental and neurological diseases.
—Rosalind Picard, founder and director of the Affective Computing research group at the MIT Media Lab
16. Can we find out what is dark matter?
Whether we can determine what dark matter is depends on what it is. Some forms of dark matter allow for small interactions between detection and common matter, which has previously avoided detection. Other dark matter may be detected by its influence on structures such as galaxies. I hope we can learn more from experiments or observations, but this is not guaranteed.
—Lisa Randall, Frank B. Baird, Jr., professor of science in theoretical physics and cosmology at Harvard University
17. Can we control the thorny brain diseases such as schizophrenia or inferiority?
Diseases like schizophrenia and autism have been unresolved because neuroscience has not yet found its structural problems to repair. Some people think that the answer to the future will be found entirely in biochemistry, not the neural circuit. Some people think that neuroscientists should start with the overall brain structure rather than specific neurological disorders. When I think about the future, I always think of the Nobel laureate Charles Townes' famous saying: The beauty of a new idea is that you don't know what it will be.
—Michael Gazzaniga, director of the SAGE Center for the Study of the Mind at the University of California, Santa Barbara
18. With the development of technology, can drug research no longer require animal experiments?
If organ chips can demonstrate good skills in independent laboratories around the world, replacing complex human organ physiology and solving pathological manifestations, then as previously demonstrated by proof-of-concept studies, this will gradually replace animal models and ultimately dramatically reduce animals. The needs of the experiment. Importantly, these devices will open up new avenues for drug discovery that are not possible in today's animal model. For example, personalized medicine, as well as medical research and development of specific gene subgroups from chips made by special parental cells.
—Donald E. Ingber, founding director, Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering at Harvard University
19. Can gender equality be achieved in science?
Gender equality can be achieved, but we can't just wait for it to happen on its own. We need to recruit more women into the fields of research and technology to “pull the numbersâ€. We should let the organization implement the "double-employee" strategy, promote family-friendly simulation, and help leaders develop new horizons. Most importantly, we need to use the analysis of gender-discovery and innovation capabilities to refine this understanding.
—Londa Schiebinger, John L. Hinds Professor of History of Science at Stanford University
20. Can humans one day predict a natural disaster like an earthquake a few days or hours in advance?
Some natural disasters are easier to predict than others. It takes a few days for the hurricane to come, and the volcano needs to accumulate for a few days or a few hours before it erupts, and the tornado takes only a few minutes to swept. The earthquake is probably the biggest challenge. By knowing the nature of the earthquake, we know that predicting an earthquake a few days in advance is probably impossible. But we can predict the areas that will be damaged in a few seconds or even minutes before the earthquake strikes. This is not enough for us to leave the city, but it allows us to find a safe place.
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