In 2015, the reform of state-owned enterprises will be steadily advanced, and the degree of marketization of state-owned enterprises will be significantly improved. To harness the power of the market, we must seize the general trend of the economy, industry and technology, and take advantage of the trend.
Mr. Sun Yat-sen once had a famous saying: "The world is in great shape, the people are good, the people are against it!" For the time being, the revolutionary forerunner refers to the colonial semi-colonial countries of the 20th century worldwide. The general trend of the national democratic revolution that is booming. Today, we can also borrow this famous saying to remind our business operators or those who are interested in starting a business to pay attention to the economic trend, industry trends and technological trends in 2015. It is not an exaggeration to say that these attitudes will determine the fate of the company to a large extent.
In 2015, the Chinese economy will continue to operate under the new normal, that is, from the long-term ultra-high-speed growth to the medium-high growth. For the enterprise, the market is infinitely expanding, and the era of “making fast money†by barbaric growth, extensive management, and scale expansion has become a thing of the past. To survive and develop, enterprises must rely more on innovation—scientific and technological innovation, service innovation, marketing innovation, and so on.
In 2015, the reform of the state-owned mixed ownership system will continue to advance steadily, and will be fully rolled out. State-owned enterprises and private enterprises and foreign enterprises will form a rich and complicated situation in which you have me and me. How state-owned enterprises continue to preserve and increase their value, how to continue to play the role of the eldest son of the Republic in the national economy and people's livelihood will depend on whether the leaders of state-owned enterprises can successfully control this "economic united front." This puts higher demands on the artistry and principle of the policies and strategies of the leaders of state-owned enterprises.
In 2015, the “Belt and Roadâ€, the “Silk Road Economic Belt†and the 21st Century “Maritime Silk Road†will be fully rolled out. This has already been identified as the strategic focus of China's new round of opening up and “going outâ€. This will completely change the historical pattern that China's economy has basically relied on the "eastward attack and west guard" in the eastern coastal zone since modern times. China's economic fleet will turn west and open up new economic space. For all Chinese companies, including state-owned enterprises, only in this historic turn to occupy a position in order to appreciate the infinite scenery of future development.
In 2015, the military industry, which has always been involved in national security, will continue to set off a wave of mixed ownership reform; the new energy industry will move forward with the help of “policy dividendsâ€; the communications industry will transform into data traffic operations. Mobile medical care in the pharmaceutical industry will become a new hot spot; the construction industry will also find a new way out in the “One Belt, One Road†policy...
In 2015, the further development of driverless cars may lead a new round of transportation revolution. For many people, a "driver's license" may become a historical term. In 2015, the Internet of Things will enter the first year of practice. The martial arts novels often write ideas to control things, and even empty objects can become a reality, just need to turn items into a networked device. In 2015, mobile payments will expand on a large scale. In 2015, 3D printing will shift to industrial manufacturing...
The economic trend, the general trend of the industry and the general trend of science and technology are all great opportunities and serious challenges for enterprises. In the final analysis, the trend or the trend is actually only a superficial phenomenon, the essence of which is the regularity of economic development. Taking advantage of the trend and respecting the objective laws of economic development, enterprises can "can't hold their voices on both sides of the strait. The light boat has passed the Wanzhong Mountain." If you encounter difficulties, you can ride the wind and waves, and the counter-currents may become a shipwreck.
Ten industry trends
Communication industry: transformation to data business traffic management
2015 will be the full launch year for China's 4G development
In 2014, the communications industry carried out “three networks integrationâ€, number portability, 4G license issuance, virtual operators, and the establishment of the Tower Company. Among them, 4G and broadband networks have become the focus of the information and communication industry network construction in 2014. With the promotion of 4G networks, the performance of the three major operators of the telecom service sector remained stable. The telecommunications equipment sector, including ZTE Corporation (000063, shares), came out from the low performance period and maintained a certain growth. It is expected that with the issuance of FDD licenses, the industry will develop well from 2015 to 2016.
But it cannot be ignored that the communications industry has entered a low-profit, low-growth channel in recent years. It is understood that in 2014, the revenue of the telecom operation industry increased by about 5%, and the profit has dropped from more than 20% to about 10%. In 2015, it may fall below 10%. Traditional business revenues such as voice and SMS have entered the downward trajectory. Internet companies have had a huge impact on traditional operators, and MMS services have been largely replaced. The future of operators is a problem that needs more attention. Under the background of the intensified trend of industrial convergence, innovations such as converged communications and VOLTE will promote the transformation of the telecom industry from the current voice service to the future data traffic service.
Business innovations such as OTT and WeChat phonebooks have brought huge impacts on the traditional services of basic operators, and have also brought huge data traffic consumption to basic telecom companies. It has become a basic consensus with OTT companies to move from confrontation to cooperation and win-win. Therefore, with the advantages of OTT enterprises in terms of business innovation, user experience and profit model, cross-border co-opetition development will become the basic trend of operators. With the addition of mobile resale enterprises, domestic private capital began to enter the traditional telecommunications industry on a large scale. Alibaba, Dickson, Suning, Gome and other competitions from different fields will lay a foundation for the diversification of the communications industry.
An important direction of telecom transformation is to study in depth how to support industrialization with informatization and find the point of strength in the integration of the two. In the "Special Action Plan for Deep Integration of Informatization and Industrialization (2013~2018)", it is proposed that in 2018, the national level of integration of development will reach 82. When General Secretary Xi Jinping visited Fujian in 2014, he asked the local authorities to seize the opportunity to accelerate development, especially to accelerate the deep integration of industrialization and informationization.
The slogan of "two-in-depth integration" has been called for many years, but it has to be undertaken by a powerful and innovative enterprise that stands out in the market competition. It may be a telecom operator or a platform enterprise, more likely. It is a group of innovative enterprises that will emerge in the future.
The essence of telecommunications transformation is Internet. Some current telecom companies are focusing on the development of hotspots, including VoLTE and converged communications. More is still a kind of telecommunication network thinking, and the focus is still on transforming the network to achieve related capabilities. Converged communication may be the last step in the thinking of the telecommunications network. The next step will be to go to the Internet in full. Otherwise, the trend of the telecom industry to decline in two or three years will be more obvious than it is now.
Construction industry: beneficiaries of the “Belt and Roadâ€
Construction companies with a large number of overseas infrastructure businesses become direct beneficiaries
In 2014, the National New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) was released. However, in 2014, the growth rate of new real estate construction in China fell, the construction industry project was tight, and the annual project was reduced. With the downward pressure on the macro economy, the willingness of the country to grow steadily is growing stronger. Beginning in the second half of the year, the real estate lending policy was relaxed, and the monetary funds were all loose. The implementation of the “Belt and Road†strategy to promote overseas infrastructure investment is good for the construction industry in 2015.
The implementation of the “Belt and Road†requires Chinese companies to build more infrastructure overseas, including ports, railways, highways, and energy corridors. In 2015, China's construction industry must not only seize the opportunity of the “Belt and Road†construction in China, but also take advantage of China's investment overseas to make great strides.
At present, the Nigerian railway and the Grand Canal of Nicaragua are all built by Chinese companies. With the advancement of Asian economic integration and China's support for Asian infrastructure financing, the ability of domestic construction companies to acquire orders in Central Asia and South Asia will gradually increase in the future. It is estimated that China's foreign investment will reach 1.25 trillion US dollars in the next 10 years, which means it will triple the total foreign investment to date.
In the competition of international orders, because the foreign engineering contracting business has higher requirements on the technology, management and financing ability of the enterprise, the large-scale construction central enterprises occupy a clear competitive advantage, and the top 50 enterprises in the domestic industry have an absolute market share. Among them, China Communications Construction (601800, shares it), China Power Construction (601669, shares it), China Construction (601668, shares it), China Railway (601390, shares it), China Railway Construction (601186, shares it) and other central enterprises have become "one area All the way to the direct beneficiaries of infrastructure construction. The construction service provider of the cement production line, Sinoma International (600970, shares), the main business of international engineering general contracting of China International (002051, shares it), will also benefit from the "One Belt, One Road" strategic planning of the infrastructure output.
“All the way†is a kind of opportunity and systemic opportunity comparable to the “into the WTOâ€. However, overseas demand is often broken-point, and there is a strong demand for the continuous production of 4 trillion domestically. Great difference. Chinese construction companies have gone abroad for a number of years and have already occupied a place in the field of engineering contracting, with many achievements and many losses. In 2015, although the export orders of some large state-owned enterprises are expected to increase, most small and medium-sized enterprises will not share the “One Belt, One Road†strategic dividend.
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